Abstract
AbstractTurbulence is one of the major weather hazards to aviation. Studies have shown that clear‐air turbulence may well occur more frequently with future climate change. Currently the two World Area Forecast Centres use deterministic models to generate forecasts of turbulence. It has been shown that the use of multi‐model ensembles can lead to more skilful turbulence forecasts. It has also been shown that the combination of turbulence diagnostics can also produce more skilful forecasts using deterministic models. This study puts the two approaches together to expand the range of diagnostics to include predictors of both convective and mountain wave turbulence, in addition to clear‐air turbulence, using two ensemble model systems. Results from a 12 month global trial from September 2016 to August 2017 show the increased skill and economic value of including a wider range of diagnostics in a multi‐diagnostic multi‐model ensemble.
Highlights
Turbulence is a major hazard for the aviation industry, causing damage to aircraft and injury to passengers and flight crew
This study, aims to bring together two different methods of turbulence forecasting to see if there is any more skill that can be achieved that could be applied in the future to upgrade the current World Area Forecast Centres (WAFCs) forecasts
Richardson number EPS51 MOGREPS-G Multi-model 95% lower CI Multi-model Multi-model 95% upper CI
Summary
Turbulence is a major hazard for the aviation industry, causing damage to aircraft and injury to passengers and flight crew. Studies combining two deterministic models (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System and the Met Office Unified Model) producing GTG diagnostics have been carried out to produce non-convective turbulence forecasts (Kim et al, 2018) They created probabilistic forecasts by using probability density functions for each diagnostic rather than using the probabilities from an ensemble numerical weather prediction model. This study, aims to bring together two different methods of turbulence forecasting (multidiagnostic and multi-model ensemble) to see if there is any more skill that can be achieved that could be applied in the future to upgrade the current WAFC forecasts To do this the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System (MOGREPS-G) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) are combined.
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
