Multidecadal solar radiation trends in the United States and Germany and direct tropospheric aerosol forcing

Abstract

In recent studies, anthropogenic aerosols have been recognized as important radiative forcing factors of climate because of their ability to scatter and/or absorb sunlight. At clear‐sky conditions the direct aerosol forcing at ground is negative and implies less solar heating of the surface because of aerosols. In this study, an intensified direct aerosol forcing of −7 to −8 W/m2 has been detected in the United States for the interval from 1960 to 1990. In Germany a weakened aerosol forcing of +3 W/m2 was observed during the same time period. Even though the aerosol forcing is stronger in the eastern United States compared to the western United States, the positive trend is almost equal. We attained these results by scrutinizing clear‐sky global solar radiation recordings for these regions and this time period. Additionally, the diurnal cycle and the direct to diffuse ratio of solar radiation were used for constraining the observed trends. Increased absorption and declined light scattering are presumably responsible for the intensified direct aerosol forcing in the United States. While at the same time in Germany, both aerosol absorption and scattering must have declined to explain the parallel weakened aerosol forcing and the increased direct/diffuse ratio. To estimate the possible anthropogenic portion of these observed changes, we compared the observational results with modeled aerosol forcing scenarios retrieved from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS GCM). Modeled surface solar radiation, aerosol optical thickness, and single‐scattering albedo are derived from emission trends of anthropogenic sulfate and carbonaceous aerosols. The emission distributions are calculated from fossil fuel consumption databases. On the basis of these simulations we suspect that the declining trend of sulfate burden over Germany between 1960 and 1990 was stronger than estimated with the model. Over the United States the simulated small increase in the carbonaceous aerosol burden was exaggerated in order to explain the observed changes in surface solar radiation, diurnal cycle, and direct/diffuse ratio of surface solar radiation. In addition to emission changes from fossil fuel burning, other reasons explaining the solar radiation trends are also discussed.