Multi-decadal and multi-centennial variability in Colorado River streamflow

Abstract

ABSTRACTA 1240-year-long record of reconstructed annual flows of the Colorado River at Lees Ferry is analysed using singular spectrum analysis and multi-taper method of spectral analysis. Spectral analysis of the 100-year-long recent record of annual flows of Colorado River in the measured and reconstructed forms shows similar oscillations in high- and low-frequency bands. Therefore, the oscillatory components and trends extracted from the reconstructed data are a good representative of inter-annual, multi-decadal, and multi-centennial variability of natural flow in the river. In Colorado River the length of flow data is 1240 years and multi-centennial and multi-decadal oscillatory components can be extracted at a high confidence level. In this research we attempt to find whether the changes in streamflow in the twentieth century are due to an external cause such as climate change or whether they are part of the natural variability of flow observed in the past. The results suggest that there is only a part of the linear trend, caused by climate change or man-made effects, and an important part of that is due to climate variability which is believed to be totally natural. The same line of climate variability is still acting on our planet, and it may have gained new aspects due to the change in atmospheric composition and circulation as a result of anthropogenic effects. This may cause serious limitations to the water sustainability and water availability on the earth.