Multi-Criteria Decision Support and Uncertainty Handling, Propagation and Visualisation for Emergency and Remediation Management

Abstract

The real-time online decision support system RODOS provides support throughout all phases of a nuclear or radiological emergency in Europe. The multicriteria decision support tool Web-HIPRE has been integrated into RODOS for a transparent evaluation of long-term measures, taking into account the preferences of a decision making team. However, a decision making process in practice is subject to various sources of uncertainty. This paper describes a Monte Carlo approach to consistently model and propagate the uncertainties within the RODOS system, including Web-HIPRE, aiming at comprehensibly visualising and communicating the uncertainties associated with the results from the decision analysis.