Multicriteria decision making (MCDM) model for regional sustainable shrimp farming development in northwest Mexico

Abstract

Decision makers, i.e. policy‐makers and farmers, are challenged with the responsibility of planning and conducting aquaculture development in a sustainable way whereby social, environmental and economic goals are simultaneously satisfied. This paper presents a multi‐criteria decision making (MCDM) model developed for the purpose of evaluating the sustainable development of shrimp farming in the northwest region of Mexico (States of Sonora, Sinaloa and Nayarit) based on the stated government objectives for aquaculture development in Mexico. Three possible production systems for two species were investigated for the planning scenario where managers seek to determine the optimal combination of new shrimp farms within 22,500 ha over a five‐year period. The planning objectives assumed in the MCDM model are employment (E), foreign exchange earnings (XG), economic rent (ER) maximization, and total pollution (TOTALPOLL) minimization, subject to land availability and local market demand constraints. Under a preliminary evaluation of single‐objective optimization, XG and ER maximization produce similar results. The MCDM model was implemented using Feasible Goals®, and shows that when fully allocating the available land, the shrimp farming industry would generate 7,490 new jobs, ER and XG of USDS 68.1 and $ 497.6 million respectively, with a total pollutant discharge of 2,000 tons in 2005. The multiple‐criteria optimization strongly favors semi‐intensive systems (93% of the total 466 new farms). The sustainable development of the industry based on the assumptions of this analysis does not suggest intensification of systems. Rather, the results of the MCDM analysis support the claim that semi‐intensive farms, which are more common in Mexico, promote sustainability.