Multicriteria assessment of optimal forecasting models in decision support systems to ensure the navigation safety

Abstract

When developing the Decision Support System (DSS), the operability of the internal motion and maneuvering control systems of the vessel is characterized by a large number of parameters, which should be monitored in order to achieve the expected results. The task is to develop an appropriate methodology for automatic monitoring of these systems, which, using a minimum set of sensors, makes it possible to predict the state of the vessel and change the dangerous state to the safe one. To implement the method of automatic monitoring, a set of statistical control tools is selected depending on the alleged violations and the level of correlation of parameters. The uncorrelated parameters are monitored by instruments based on the Shewhart map [1], the correlated parameters are monitored on the basis of Hotelling statistics [2]. This approach makes it possible to diagnose the pre-emergency and emergency states of ship control systems in on-line mode. The method used for multi-level integrated monitoring of the technical state of control systems in on-line mode can improve the reliability of of identification of the technical state of vessel subsystems and expandthe scope of application of monitoring and diagnostics tools. The data obtained can become the basis for the development of rational decisions in the DSS at the level of control subsystems for the vessel transfer from the dangerous to safe state.