Multicentury Changes to the Global Climate and Carbon Cycle: Results from a Coupled Climate and Carbon Cycle Model

Abstract

Abstract A coupled climate and carbon (CO2) cycle model is used to investigate the global climate and carbon cycle changes out to the year 2300 that would occur if CO2 emissions from all the currently estimated fossil fuel resources were released to the atmosphere. By the year 2300, the global climate warms by about 8 K and atmospheric CO2 reaches 1423 ppmv. The warming is higher than anticipated because the sensitivity to radiative forcing increases as the simulation progresses. In this simulation, the rate of emissions peaks at over 30 Pg C yr−1 early in the twenty-second century. Even at the year 2300, nearly 50% of cumulative emissions remain in the atmosphere. Both soils and living biomass are net carbon sinks throughout the simulation. Despite having relatively low climate sensitivity and strong carbon uptake by the land biosphere, these model projections suggest severe long-term consequences for global climate if all the fossil fuel carbon is ultimately released into the atmosphere.