Multi-agent Assessment on Marketing Risk Based on Evidence Theory

Abstract

The paper aims to solving the problems on risk assessment in process of marketing through basic principles of evidence theory. First of all, the concept model on risk assessment based on evidence theory is established; then set agent parameters of marketing risk of a certain tinned beer, and establish the corresponding fuzzy membership function according to the marketing characteristics of this tinned beer; finally, the synthesis rule of evidence theory is converted into synthesis rule of fuzzy evidence so as to achieve the combination between fuzzy function and membership function and form the ultimate multi-agent assessment mathematical model. Input actual monitoring data into the model, and the results show that multi-agent assessment on marketing risk model established in this paper could well conduct the comprehensive assessment for marketing conditions of the tinned beer, and it also shows that it is an effective way for solving the issue of marketing risk assessment by using the model, which could provide support for decision-makers.