Multi‐year simulations using a regional‐climate model over the Iberian Peninsula: Current climate and doubled CO2scenario

Abstract

AbstractIn order to analyse the regional climate sensitivity in the Iberian Peninsula and surrounding areas to the global change related to an increase of CO2, two simulations (current climate and scenario) are performed using a regional‐climate model (RCM) one‐way nested in a global circulation model (GCM). Both simulations cover a ten‐year period. The results of the control simulation (current climate) are compared to a climatological database. RCM and GCM representations of the climate are realistic, but the RCM shows more detailed results. Following this, a statistical analysis of the differences between current climate and double CO2scenario simulations is carried out considering both 2 m temperature and precipitation. The analysis shows a significant warming in seasonal averages and important differences in the 2 m temperature interannual variability. Especially important is the strong increase in interannual variability of precipitation found in winter and autumn. Relationships between anomalies of general circulation (500 hPa geopotential field) and surface temperature, precipitation and cloudiness are also analysed, showing an important effect of cloud cover anomalies over the 2 m temperature interannual variability.