Multi-variate time-series for time constraint adherence prediction in complex job shops

Abstract

One of the most complex and agile production environments is semiconductor manufacturing, especially wafer fabrication, as products require more than several hundred operations and remain in Work-In-Progress for months leading to complex job shops. Additionally, an increasingly competitive market environment, i.e. owing to Moore’s law, forces semiconductor companies to focus on operational excellence, resiliency and, hence, leads to product quality as a decisive factor. Product-specific time constraints comprising two or more, not necessarily consecutive, operations ensure product quality at an operational level and, thus, are an industry-specific challenge. Time constraint adherence is of utmost importance, since violations typically lead to scrapping entire lots and a deteriorating yield. Dispatching decisions that determine time constraint adherence are as a state of the art performed manually, which is stressful and error-prone. Therefore, this article presents a data-driven approach combining multi-variate time-series with centralized information to predict time constraint adherence probability in wafer fabrication to facilitate dispatching. Real-world data is analyzed and different statistical and machine learning models are evaluated.