Abstract
Joint probabilistic characteristics of key structural demand variables due to intense ground shaking are important for quantitative seismic loss estimation. Current damage–loss models require inputs of multiple seismic demand parameters, such as maximum/residual inter-storey drift ratio (ISDR) and peak floor acceleration (PFA). This study extends current seismic demand estimation methods based on incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) by characterising dependence among different engineering demand parameters (EDP) using copulas explicitly. The developed method is applied to a 4-storey non-ductile reinforced concrete (RC) frame in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada. The developed multi-variate seismic demand model is integrated with a storey-based damage–loss model to assess the economic consequences due to different earthquake loss generation modes (i.e. non-collapse repairs, collapse, and demolition). Results obtained from this study indicate that the effects of multi-variate seismic demand modelling on the expected seismic loss ratios are significant. The critical information is the limit state threshold for demolition. In addition, consideration of a realistic dependence structure of maximum and residual inter-storey drift ratios can be important for seismic loss estimation as well as for multi-criteria seismic performance evaluation.
Highlights
An accurate assessment of potential impact of future destructive earthquakes is essential for effective disaster risk reduction
This study developed multi-variate seismic demand models using copulas, and applied them to a 4-storey non-ductile RC frame in Victoria, British Columbia, Canada
Key hysteretic characteristics of the non-ductile RC frame were captured in the finite-element model, which was capable of simulating damage initiation to collapse realistically
Summary
An accurate assessment of potential impact of future destructive earthquakes is essential for effective disaster risk reduction. The developed multi-variate seismic demand model is integrated with a storey-based damage–loss model for non-ductile RC frames [9] to evaluate the effects of incorporating ResISDR in PSRA and dependence modelling between MaxISDR and ResISDR on earthquake loss generation (including demolition). The novel contributions of this study are: (i) copula-based multi-variate modelling of EDP parameters is developed for a realistic structural model, and (ii) the impact of multi-variate seismic demand modelling is assessed in terms of expected seismic loss and seismic performance metrics. The former essentially extends the current IDA-based seismic demand modelling approaches.
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