Abstract
BackgroundThis study analysed the multi-temporal trend in land cover, and modelled a future scenario of land cover for the year 2030 in the highly urbanized state of Selangor, Malaysia. The study used a Decision Forest-Markov chain model in the land change modeller (LCM) tool of TerrSet software. Land cover maps of 1999, 2006 and 2017 were classified into 5 classes, namely water, natural vegetation, agriculture, built-up land and cleared land. A simulated land cover map of 2017 was validated against the actual land cover map 2017. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.84 of Total Operating Characteristics (TOC) and higher percentage of components of agreement (Hits + Correct rejection) compared to components of disagreement (Misses + False alarm + Wrong hits) indicated successful validation of the model.ResultsThe results showed between the years 1999 to 2017 there was an increase in built-up land cover of 608.8 km2 (7.5%), and agricultural land 285.5 km2 (3.5%), whereas natural vegetation decreased by 831.8 km2 (10.2%). The simulated land cover map of 2030 showed a continuation of this trend, where built-up area is estimated to increase by 723 km2 (8.9%), and agricultural land is estimated to increase by 57.2 km2 (0.7%), leading to a decrease of natural vegetation by 663.9 km2 (8.1%) for the period 2017 to 2030. The spatial trend of land cover change shows built-up areas mostly located in central Selangor where the highly urbanized and populated cities of Kuala Lumpur and Putrajaya and the Klang valley are located.ConclusionThe future land cover modelling indicates that built-up expansion mostly takes place at edges of existing urban boundaries. The results of this study can be used by policy makers, urban planners and other stakeholders for future decision making and city planning.
Highlights
Land use and land cover (LULC) change is the human modification of the earth’s terrestrial surface
In the period 1999 to 2017 built-up land increased by 608.8 km2 (7.5%), agricultural land increased by 285.5 km2 (3.5%), and water bodies increased by 21.1 km2 (0.3%), whereas natural vegetation decreased by 831.8 km2 (10.2%) and cleared land decreased by 83.7 km2 (1%) (Table 1)
This study developed a Decision Trees (DT)-MC model to analyse the trend in land cover and to estimated future change in Selangor
Summary
Land use and land cover (LULC) change is the human modification of the earth’s terrestrial surface. Over the past 50 years, the driving force behind LULC change has been the increase in agricultural land, and since 1992 the rapid urbanization has added to the ever-growing. Many studies have shown that urbanization can result in increasing of surface temperature, which leads to Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect (Chao et al 2020; Hafoud et al 2020; Qiu et al 2020; Son et al 2020; Sultana and Satyanarayana 2020), this can alter rainfall over urban areas (Pielke et al 2002; Liang and Ding 2017; Schmid and Niyogi 2017; Liu and Niyogi 2019; Singh et al 2020; Yu et al 2020). Besides affecting biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, LULC change has a great impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The conversion of natural vegetation to agricultural land and urban areas can lead to the degradation of the ecosystem services and loss of biodiversity, in biodiversity-rich hotspots like South East Asia. The Area Under the Curve (AUC) value of 0.84 of Total Operating Characteristics (TOC) and higher percentage of components of agreement (Hits + Correct rejection) compared to components of disagreement (Misses + False alarm + Wrong hits) indicated successful validation of the model
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