Multi step ahead prediction of nighttime VLF amplitude signal for low-, mid-and high-latitude paths

Abstract

The electromagnetic field amplitude of the subionospheric Very Low Frequency (VLF) propagation is sensitive to the lower ionospheric conditions. Accordingly, VLF waves have been proposed to study and monitor the lower ionosphere (D/E region). In this paper, the NARXNN (Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input Neural Network) is used as a method for predicting the daily nighttime mean amplitude of VLF transmitter signals indicating the ionospheric perturbation around the transmitter-receiver path. The NARXNN has a good accuracy in predicting time series data and thus are more suitable for dynamic modeling. The NARX constructed model, which was built based on daily input variables of various physical parameters with the time interval from 1 January 2011 to 4 February 2013 such as stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, cosmic rays, total column ozone, F10.7, Kp, AE, and Dst indices. We used the constructed model to predict high-(NLK-CHF), middle-(NPM-CHF) and low-latitude (NWC-CHF) paths. As a result, the constructed models are capable of performing reasonably good 5-day ahead predictions of the daily nighttime of VLF electric field amplitude for NPM-CHF path with the Pearson correlation coefficient (r) of 0.84 and with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) of 3.12 dB, NLK-CHF (r = 0.80, RMSE = 3.57 dB) and NWC-CHF (r = 0.79, RMSE = 2.60 dB). We conclude that the constructed NARX NN model is capable of predicting the VLF electric field amplitude variation for different latitude paths.