Multi-Spatio-Temporal Convolutional Neural Network for Short-Term Metro Passenger Flow Prediction

Abstract

Accurate short-term prediction of metro passenger flow can offer significant assistance in optimizing train schedules, reducing congestion during peak times, and improving the service level of the metro system. Currently, most models do not fully utilize the high-resolution data aggregated by automatic fare collection systems. Therefore, we propose a model, called MST-GRT, that aggregates multi-time granularity data and considers multi-graph structures. Firstly, we analyze the correlation between metro passenger flow sequences at different time granularities and establish a principle for extracting the spatiotemporal correlation of data at different time granularities using the multi-graph neural network. Subsequently, we use residual blocks to construct a deep convolutional neural network to aggregate the data of different time granularities from small to large, obtaining multi-channel feature maps of multi-time granularity. To process the multi-channel feature maps, we use 2D dilated causal convolution to reconstruct the TCN (Temporal Convolutional Network) to compress the channel number of the feature maps and extract the time dependency of the data, and finally output the results through a fully connected layer. The experimental results demonstrate that our model outperforms the baseline models on the Hangzhou Metro smart-card data set.