Multi-seismotectonic models, present-day seismicity and seismic hazard assessment for Suez Canal and its surrounding area, Egypt

Abstract

Suez Canal is the most important navigational water stream in the world. It separates the eastern part of the Nile Delta from northern Sinai and controls 40 % of ship movement in the world. There is also the new Suez Canal project, which is one of the most important new projects in Egypt. The purpose of this study is to assess seismic hazards at and around Suez Canal. The technique used in hazard estimation is the probabilistic seismic hazard approach (PSHA). Alternative seismotectonic source models were included in the hazard assessment to account for the epistemic uncertainty. Contour maps were produced for ground motion on rock for spectral periods 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2 s, as well as Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for return periods of 75, 475, 975 and 2475 years (equivalent to 20, 10, 5 and 2 % probability of exceeding ground motion in 50 years, respectively). The Uniform Hazard Spectra (UHS) was also estimated for some cities inside the study area on rock for return periods of 75, 475, 975 and 2475 years. The results show that the highest hazard level is at the southeastern part of the study area with maximum expected spectral acceleration of 280.3 cm/s2 (gal) at a spectral period of 0.2 s for a return period of 475 years. The results of this study can be used for seismic microzonation, seismic risk mitigation and for earthquake engineering purposes.