Abstract
Although many publications have noted the impact of urban planning on urban development and land-use change, the incorporation of planning constraints into urban growth simulation has not been adequately addressed so far. This study aims to develop a planning-constrained cellular automata (CA) model by combining cell-based trade-off between urban growth and natural conservation with a zoning-based planning implementation mechanism. By adjusting the preference parameters of different planning zones, multiple planning-constrained scenarios can be generated. Taking the Wuhan Urban Development Area (WUDA), China as a case study, the planning-constrained CA model was applied to simulate current and future urban scenarios. The results show a higher simulation accuracy compared to the model without planning constraints. With the weakening of planning constraints, urban growth tends to occupy more ecological and agricultural land with high conservation priority. With the increase in preference on urban growth or natural conservation, the future urban land pattern will become more fragmented. Furthermore, new urban land beyond the planned urban development area can be captured in future urban scenarios, which will provide certain early warning. The simulation of the current urban spatial pattern should help planners and decisionmakers to evaluate the past implementation of urban planning, and scenarios simulation can provide effective support for future urban planning by evaluating the consequences.
Highlights
Urbanization is one of the greatest social transformations in human history [1,2]
These show that the urban growth in the Wuhan Urban Development Area (WUDA) during 2009–2017 is mainly at the cost of the reduction in cultivated land and water area
We found that the integrated urban spatial planning of Wuhan has an obvious guiding and restricting effect on the expansion of urban land at this stage, with 73.26% of the new urban land occurring in the urban development zone (UDZ)
Summary
Urbanization is one of the greatest social transformations in human history [1,2]. In order to meet the unprecedented demand of urban population growth and economic development, urban land presents a violent and disorderly expansion trend [3]. Urban land is only a small part of the Earth’s surface, its rapid growth has been identified as a major contributor to natural habitat loss, cropland reduction and ecosystem services degradation [5,6,7], posing great threat to the world’s sustainable development [8,9]. It raises continuous competition for land between urban development and natural conservation [10], which is especially relevant to China due to its limited land resources and huge population living in urban areas [11]. Simulation of future urban expansion and encroachment incorporating different planning policies is of great significance for authorities and planners to make effective decisions in optimizing urban spatial patterns and achieving urban sustainable development
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