Multi-Scenario Simulation and Prediction of Regional Habitat Quality Based on a System Dynamic and Patch-Generating Land-Use Simulation Coupling Model—A Case Study of Jilin Province

Abstract

Effectively evaluating and predicting the change trend in regional habitat quality and its response to land-use change is of great significance for promoting regional high-quality and sustainable development. In this study, Jilin Province is taken as an example, and the SD–PLUS coupling model and the habitat quality module of the InVEST model are used to simulate the habitat quality of Jilin Province in 2030. In addition, the population and urbanization rates under the SSPs path are taken as the scenario framework, and the habitat quality changes from 1995 to 2030 are discussed. The results showed that the kappa coefficient of the simulation results was 0.93, and the FoM coefficient was 0.102. The simulation effect was good. The land-use simulation results under the four scenarios were quite different, and the change areas were mainly concentrated in the northwest, southeast, and central urban areas of Jilin Province. From 1995 to 2015, the habitat quality showed spatial distribution characteristics of “high in the southeast and low in the northwest”, and the habitat quality continued to deteriorate. By 2030, the ecological priority scenario (S3) is expected to have the maximum average value of habitat quality. Under this scenario, the scale of ecological land, such as forest, increases, and the scale of construction land is controlled. The minimum habitat quality appeared in the situation of rapid expansion (S2), and the increase in low-quality habitat areas was highly consistent with the expansion trend in urban construction land. In the coordinated development scenario, the growth rate of construction land reached 52.26%, but the average value of habitat quality decreased by only 0.0002, which basically found the balance point between economic development and ecological protection. S4 had a high reference value for the future development of Jilin Province.