Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis of Land Use and Carbon Storage Changes in Changchun City Based on FLUS and InVEST Model

Abstract

Land use change is an important reason for changes in carbon storage in terrestrial ecosystems. Therefore, analyzing the impact of land use change on carbon storage is important for exploring the sustainable development of cities and improving the value of ecosystem services. Taking Changchun City in the northeast of China as the research area, this paper simulates land use patterns under three scenarios up to 2030 using the FLUS model and assesses carbon storage from 2010 to 2030 using the InVEST model. It estimates the impact of land use change on carbon storage under several scenarios in Changchun. The results show that cultivated land plays an important role in carbon storage in Changchun. The transfer of cultivated land to construction land has been the main land use type conversion over the past decade, which has led to most of the carbon storage loss. In the natural growth scenario, the carbon storage would decline further. In the cultivated land protection scenario, meanwhile, this situation would be greatly improved. In the ecological protection scenario, the carbon storage would be increased due to the protection of ecological land. In the future, we should protect existing resources while simultaneously comprehensively improving the economic, social, and ecological benefits of the land.