Multi-scenario reduction pathways and decoupling analysis of China’s sectoral carbon emissions

Abstract

To achieve its goal of carbon emissions peak and neutrality, China requires synergistic efforts across all sectors. In this study, three scenarios-baseline, policy, and green low-carbon-were developed to explore the pathways for China's emissions reduction across sectors from 2020 to 2060, and the timing of decoupling economic growth from CO2. The results showed that, under these scenarios, China's carbon emissions peak in 2030, 2026, and 2025, with strong decoupling time, lagged one year behind peak attainment. The agriculture, forestry, livestock, and fishing (AFH) and mining and quarrying (MQ) sectors would be the first to achieve a carbon peak. Under all three scenarios, all of the other sectors-with the exception of electricity, gas, and water production and supply (EGW)-will achieve a carbon peak by 2030. Therefore, policymakers should set carbon peak goals based on sector characteristics and ensure energy security in the process of achieving carbon neutrality.