Multi-Scenario Ecological Network Conservation Planning Based on Climate and Land Changes: A Multi-Species Study in the Southeast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Abstract

The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau ecosystem is fragile, experiencing rapid changes in land cover driven by both climate change and human activities, leading to habitat fragmentation and loss and resulting in biodiversity decline. Habitat ecological networks (HA-ENs) are considered effective solutions for habitat connectivity and biodiversity conservation in response to these dual drivers. However, HA-EN studies typically rely on current or historical landscape data, which hinders the formulation of future conservation strategies. This study proposes three future scenarios—improvement, deterioration, and baseline scenarios—focused on the southeastern Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (SE-QPT). The habitats of 10 species across three classes are extracted, integrating land use and climate change data into habitat ecological network modeling to assess the long-term dynamics of HA-ENs in the SE-QPT. Finally, conservation management strategies are proposed based on regional heterogeneity. The results show the following: Climate change and human activities are expected to reduce the suitable habitat area for species, intensifying resource competition among multiple species. By 2030, under all scenarios, the forest structure will become more fragmented, and grassland degradation will be primarily concentrated in the southeastern and western parts of the study area. Compared to 1985 (71,891.3 km2), the habitat area by 2030 is projected to decrease by 12.9% (62,629.3 km2). The overlap rate of species habitats increases from 25.4% in 1985 to 30.9% by 2030. Compared to the HA-EN control in 1985, all scenarios show a decrease in connectivity and complexity, with only the improvement scenario showing some signs of recovery towards the control network, albeit limited. Finally, based on regional heterogeneity, a conservation management strategy of “two points, two cores, two corridors, and two regions” is proposed. This strategy aims to provide a framework for future conservation efforts in response to climate change and human activities.