Abstract
Abstract Extreme precipitation triggered by climate change is a hot issue of global concern. This study investigates changes in temporal trends of precipitation at Jinan City, Shandong Province over the last six decades. It first constructs a long series of measured daily precipitation data (1951–2017) and then exploits the relative variability, Mann–Kendall, and rescaled range analysis (R/S analysis) methods to update precipitation characteristics. Results indicate that: (1) annual precipitation varies over 116%, with 74.1% of total precipitation concentrated from June to September, especially for heavy rains and storm days; (2) at the 95% confidence level, the annual rainfall does not increase significantly (U = 1.15), but there is a significant upward trend in the spring (U = 2.08), whereas there is no significant downward trend in the fall (U = −1.03); (3) precipitation sequence mutates in 1990, consistent with spring precipitation series, while there are two to four mutations in summer, autumn, and winter. The above results will provide the theoretical basis and data support for the rational development of water resources in Jinan; meanwhile, studying the law of precipitation changes in Jinan City has important practical significance for flood disaster prevention.
Highlights
Mastering the dynamic changes of climatic variables such as rainfall and evaporation, as well as the effects of induced disasters, is essential for improving disaster resilience (Roozbeh et al )
Annual variations of precipitation Stability and volatility characteristics Many previous studies have proved that linear fitting can reflect the trend of annual precipitation over time very clearly and intuitively
In the two periods of 1961–1967 and 2003–2011, the five-year moving average of annual precipitation was significantly greater than the annual average, indicating that these two periods of precipitation are greater
Summary
Mastering the dynamic changes of climatic variables such as rainfall and evaporation, as well as the effects of induced disasters, is essential for improving disaster resilience (Roozbeh et al ). Rainfall is an important factor affecting regional. Under the influence of global climate change, the frequency of extreme rainfall events is increasing, resulting in a more pronounced mutation in rainfall characteristics (Espinoza et al ; Akter et al ; Gao et al ; Faccini et al ; Huguet et al ). Chen et al | Multi-scale update on precipitation characteristics at Jinan, East China
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