Multi‐scale species density model for conserving an endangered songbird

Abstract

AbstractHabitat modeling across a landscape that has gradients of habitat conditions requires potential predictor data that can be quantified at biologically relevant scales. We used remotely sensed data to develop a multi‐scale density model in 2018 for the golden‐cheeked warbler (Setophaga chrysoparia; warbler), a species that breeds in Ashe juniper (Juniperus ashei)‐oak (Quercus spp.) woodlands in central Texas, USA. We first classified Ashe juniper and broadleaf tree cover at a 1‐m resolution and used this to map potential habitat across the warbler's >67,000‐km2 breeding range. We then designed a survey for estimating warbler density based on hierarchical distance sampling. We used stratified random sampling to survey for male warblers at 1,804 points across the continuum of tree canopy cover and composition and detected 810 warblers during our surveys. We developed a suite of potential predictor variables for modeling warbler density that reflected vegetation, topography, climate, and anthropogenic land use conditions across the breeding range and developed these at 3 scales representing the territory, site, and landscape. We modeled warbler density and used the best fit model to produce a spatially explicit estimate. Predicted warbler density was influenced by tree canopy cover and canopy height at the territory scale (100‐m radius); tree canopy cover, percent of the canopy comprised of juniper, and an interaction between canopy cover and compound topographic index at the site scale (1‐km radius); and annual temperature range at the landscape scale (5‐km radius). We estimated a population size of 217,444 male warblers (95% CI = 153,917–311,965) and >3,000 males in each recovery unit. After controlling for the duration of point count surveys, our estimate of population size was similar to that reported from the only previous breeding range survey conducted in 2008–2009. Our model results indicated that management activities to increase warbler density should promote woodlands with high tree canopy cover, approximately 60–80% Ashe juniper composition, and tree heights >3 m. In contrast to a patch‐based approach, our treatment of habitat variables as continuous helped to credibly map the warbler distribution across areas with broad transitions from woodlands to shrublands. By measuring these predictor variables at biologically relevant scales, we allowed the warbler survey data to define habitat relationships instead of using anthropogenically defined habitat patches. Outcomes from our study show the benefits of developing spatial products tailored to individual species of interest for conservation and management decisions.