Multi-Scale Dynamic Analysis of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict from the Perspective of Night-Time Lights

Abstract

Under the influence of various forces, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is violent and changeable. The obtaining of battlefield data by conventional means is difficult but necessary in order to ensure security, reliability, and comprehensiveness. The use of remote sensing technology can make up for the deficiencies of conventional methods. By using night-time light data, the total number of night-time lights in the built-up areas of Ukrainian cities within 36 days of the outbreak of the Russian–Ukrainian conflict is compiled in this paper. Furthermore, the dynamic changes in night-time light at the national, regional, and urban scales are analyzed by using the night-time light ratio index and the dynamic degree model combined with the time-series night-time light data. The results show that (1) after the outbreak of the war, more than 60% of the night-time lights in Ukrainian cities were lost. In terms of the night-time light recovery speed, the night-time lights in the pro-Russian areas recovered significantly faster, followed by Russian-controlled areas, and the recovery speed in areas of conflict was the lowest. (2) Decision-making by belligerents affects non-combatant activities and thus corresponds to light at night. The loss of night-time light will be reduced if military operations are reduced and mitigated if humanitarian operations are increased. (3) The changes in night-time light reflect the changes in the conflict situation well. When the conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensifies, the overall change of night-time light shows a downward trend. In this context, night-time light data can be used as an effective source to deduce and predict battlefield situations.