Multi-relation spatiotemporal graph residual network model with multi-level feature attention: A novel approach for landslide displacement prediction

Abstract

Accurate prediction of landslide displacement is crucial for effective early warning of landslide disasters. While most existing prediction methods focus on time-series forecasting for individual monitoring points, there is limited research on the spatiotemporal characteristics of landslide deformation. This paper proposes a novel Multi-Relation Spatiotemporal Graph Residual Network with Multi-Level Feature Attention (MFA-MRSTGRN) that effectively improves the prediction performance of landslide displacement through spatiotemporal fusion. This model integrates internal seepage factors as data feature enhancements with external triggering factors, allowing for accurate capture of the complex spatiotemporal characteristics of landslide displacement and the construction of a multi-source heterogeneous dataset. The MFA-MRSTGRN model incorporates dynamic graph theory and four key modules: multi-level feature attention, temporal-residual decomposition, spatial multi-relational graph convolution, and spatiotemporal fusion prediction. This comprehensive approach enables the efficient analyses of multi-source heterogeneous datasets, facilitating adaptive exploration of the evolving multi-relational, multi-dimensional spatiotemporal complexities in landslides. When applying this model to predict the displacement of the Liangshuijing landslide, we demonstrate that the MFA-MRSTGRN model surpasses traditional models, such as random forest (RF), long short-term memory (LSTM), and spatial temporal graph convolutional networks (ST-GCN) models in terms of various evaluation metrics including mean absolute error (MAE = 1.27 mm), root mean square error (RMSE = 1.49 mm), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE = 0.026), and R-squared (R2 = 0.88). Furthermore, feature ablation experiments indicate that incorporating internal seepage factors improves the predictive performance of landslide displacement models. This research provides an advanced and reliable method for landslide displacement prediction.