Multi-Perspective Influence Mechanism Analysis and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Carbon Emissions——A Case of the Yangtze River Delta, China

Tao Yi,Mohan Qiu,Yu Tian,Zhengang Zhang,Song Mu,C.-H Weng,J Wu,R Weerasinghe

doi:10.1051/e3sconf/201911804014

Abstract

Under the mandatory push of meeting carbon emission reduction commitments proposed in the Paris Agreement, the analysis on the peaking time of China’s carbon emissions deserves enough attention. This paper focuses on the peaking times of total carbon emissions (TCE) and carbon emission intensity (CEI) in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD). According to the development of carbon emissions in YRD and related targets in the 13th Five-Year Plan, the peaking times of TCE and CEI in different scenarios are predicted based on the influence mechanism analysis of carbon emissions in YRD from the perspective of energy, economy and society. Considering the development characteristics of China at this stage, this paper introduces several new indicators such as full-time equivalent of research and development (R&D) personnel and investment in environmental pollution control. Based on the study results, several policy recommendations are put forward to fulfil China’s carbon emission reduction commitments.

Highlights

The energy crisis has become the focus of global sustainable development, and global warming caused by the massive consumption and utilization of energy resources is prominent
Carbon emissions have a lot to do with the development of the economy, society and the supply and demand of energy
Given the current situation of carbon emissions in Yangtze River Delta (YRD), this paper introduced new drivers such as household consumption level, full-time equivalent of research and development (R&D) personnel and investment in environmental pollution control from the perspectives of economy, energy and society to scientifically analyse the influence mechanism of carbon emissions in YRD

Summary

Introduction

The energy crisis has become the focus of global sustainable development, and global warming caused by the massive consumption and utilization of energy resources is prominent. To bear the responsibility of reducing carbon emission, China has committed to reach its carbon emissions peak in 2030 and reduce its carbon emission intensity by 40-45% in 2020 than that in 2005 in the Paris Agreement [1]. It is necessary for China to realize commitments in the Paris Agreement and promote sustainable development. The period of the 13th Five-Year Plan is a crucial period for China to fulfil its carbon emission reduction commitments proposed in the Paris Agreement. Some constrained targets about carbon emission reduction have been clarified in the 13th Five-Year Plan. This paper conducts a comprehensive and in-depth study on the influence mechanism and development of carbon emissions in YRD to predict the peaking times of TCE and CEI in different development scenarios. This study can provide a valuable reference for the optimization of carbon emission reduction policy

Methods

Results

Conclusion