Multi-objective robust decision-making for LIDs implementation under climatic change

Abstract

Decision-makers in urban water systems have long searched for robust runoff management alternatives that can resist deviations from the performance for which they were designed. In this study, with the development of a new comprehensive framework consisting of Many- Objective Robust Decision-Making (MORDM) and Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), robust alternatives for the implementation of Low Impact Development (LID) practices are presented under future climate change. The proposed methodology has been applied to District 10 of the Tehran municipality, located in the central part of Tehran, Iran. In the first step, the performances of General Circulation Models (GCMs) in predicting rainfall in the base period (1986–2005) were compared, and MPI-ESM-LR was selected as the best model for predicting rainfall in the future period (2021–2040). In the next step, by developing the SWMM hydrological model, runoff quality and quantity were simulated under RCP8.5 and RCP2.6. By coupling SWMM with the NSGA-II multi-objective evolutionary algorithm and specifying objective functions, the most optimal LIDs implementation scenarios were produced. Then, well-characterized uncertainties were changed into deep uncertainties, and the robustness of each design alternative was quantified using two robustness assessment methods. Finally, system vulnerabilities were discovered using the patient rule induction method (PRIM) and classification and regression tree (CART). This study showed that scenarios with a higher percentage of LIDs are more robust against deep uncertainties. Using different RCP scenarios also revealed that methodological selection of future climate scenarios can affect the robustness of candidate alternatives. Implementing SWMM-MORDM enables decision-makers to effectively generate runoff management scenarios and visually evaluate their robustness against deep uncertainties.