Multi-Objective Bus Timetable Coordination Considering Travel Time Uncertainty

Abstract

This paper proposes a timetable coordination method for transfer problems in a bus transit system. With a given bus network, a stochastic mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model has been formulated to obtain coordinated bus timetables with the objective of minimizing a weighted sum of the average value of total waiting time and its average absolute deviation value, allowing for random bus travel time. The vital decision variable is the terminal departure offset time of each target bus trip within a certain off-peak period. The robust MILP model can also be used to solve the first-bus transfer problem with the introduction of several new linear constraints. A solution method based on the Monte Carlo simulation has been developed to solve the MILP model. Numerical experiments have been conducted for different scenarios. The results indicate that bus timetables coordinated by the developed model are capable of substantially reducing waiting time for transfer and non-transfer passengers. In addition, the feasibility of simplifying a common sub-route into a single transfer stop in a timetable coordination problem has been explored based on numerical experiments.