Multi-Model Ensemble Projections of Winter Extreme Temperature Events on the Chinese Mainland.

Abstract

Based on the downscaling data of multi-model ensembles of 26 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, this study calculated the extreme climate indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices and the warm winter extreme grade indices to explore winter climate response on the Chinese mainland under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and representative concentration pathways. The results showed that the temperature in winter increased overall, with the highest temperature increases of 0.31 °C/10a (Celsius per decade) (SSP245) and 0.51 °C/10a (SSP585) and the lowest temperature increases of 0.30 °C/10a (SSP245) and 0.49 °C/10a (SSP585). Warm-related extreme weather events such as warm days and warm spell duration indices showed an increasing trend, whereas cold-related extreme weather events such as cold spell duration indices, cold nights, ice days, and frost days showed a decreasing trend. On the regional scale, the maximum temperature increased by more than 2 °C/10a (SSP245) and 0.4 °C/10a (SSP585), except in South China, and the minimum temperature increased faster in Qinghai-Tibet and Northeast China compared to elsewhere on the Chinese mainland. Compared with that under SSP585, the frequency and intensity of warm winters in the latter half of the 21st century were lower under SSP245. At the end of the 21st century, under the SSP245 scenario, warm winter frequency in most regions will be reduced to below 60%, but under the SSP585 scenario, it will be more than 80%. Population exposures all showed a downward trend, mainly due to the reduction of warm winter events and the decline of the population under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. If the greenhouse gas emission path is controlled in the SSP245 scenario, the population exposure risk in warm winters can be decreased by 25.87%. This study observed a consistent warming trend on the Chinese mainland under all SSPs in the 21st century and found that stricter emission reduction policies can effectively decrease the population exposure to warm winters.