Abstract
This study investigates factors affecting accidents across transport facilities and modes, using micro and macro levels variables simultaneously while accounting for the influence of adjacent zones on the accidents occurrence in a zone. To this end, 15968 accidents in 96 traffic analysis zones of Tehran were analyzed. Adverting to the multi-level structure of accidents data, the present study adopts a multilevel model for its modeling processes. The effects of the adjacent zones on the accidents which have occurred in one zone were assessed using the independent variables obtained from the zones adjacent to that specific zone. A Negative Binomial (NB) model was also developed, and results show that the multilevel model that considers the effect of adjacent zones shows a better performance compared to the multilevel model that does not consider the adjacent zones’ effect and NB model. Moreover, the final models show that at intersections and road segments, the significant independent variables are different for each mode of transport. Adopting a comprehensive approach to incorporate a multi-level, multi-resolution (micro/macro) model accounting for adjacent zones’ influence on multi-mode, multi-segment accidents is the contribution of this paper to accident studies.
Highlights
Accidents are and have always been regarded as one of the sad consequences of transportation systems
After developing numerous models including 3 types of Negative Binomial (NB) models, multilevel models with and without neighboring zones’ effect, 18 final models were created in total
To compare the performance of the multilevel model with that of the NB model and to find out how much influence is exerted by the neighboring zones on the accidents occurring in one zone, some comparisons were made among the final models based on the criteria Model Goodness of Fit, Log-Likelihood, Akaike’s Information Criterion Corrected (AICC), and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC)
Summary
Accidents are and have always been regarded as one of the sad consequences of transportation systems. Since the nature and mechanism of accidents varies across diverse transportation facilities, it is essential to run separate investigations on the accidents of each mode. The studies done over the recent years have mostly addressed accidents of all modes together or have considered only a single mode (vehicle, motorcycle and pedestrian) [3]. This has led to an inaccurate understanding of the factors affecting accidents since one factor might increase accidents in one mode while decreasing them in the other. The significance of reaching an accurate understanding of the factors leading to accidents necessitates separate investigation of accidents across different transportation modes and facilities
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