Multi-layer networks research on analyzing supply risk transmission of lithium industry chain

Abstract

Lithium is crucial for low-carbon economic transformation, which presents a strong growth in demand worldwide. To explore the foreseeable and hidden systemic risks in the trade network, the article integrates virus transmission theory with complex network theory to analyze the mechanism of risk transmission in the trade network system of the lithium industry chain. This paper constructs multi-layer risk transmission networks (MRTN) based on the lithium industry chain to simulate the dynamic process of risk transmission along the industrial chain and evaluate the extent and path of risk transmission. The results show that the risk transmission in the lithium trade network system belongs to “minority communication” and is of a “robust-yet-fragile” characterization. Diversified trade relationships increase network flexibility and anti-risk capabilities of countries in the network but also decrease the leaderships of some hub countries. During the transmission process, there are four patterns: direct contact transmission, indirect contact transmission, nucleus transmission, and spatial transmission. The finding can serve for decision-makers to seek effective strategies to build a more resilient trade system and hence improve lithium supply security and efficiency.