Multi-dimensional identification of investment risks in renewable energy projects along the Belt and Road: an integrated framework based on HHM and WRT

Abstract

ABSTRACT Due to the complexity of various risk factors and their interactive effects in the risk management of renewable energy project investment, this study uses Hierarchical Holographic Modelling (HHM) and WSR–RFRM–TSS (WRT) methods to construct a risk assessment model for energy project investment. Firstly, we comprehensively identify the risk sources by applying HHM method, and then construct the risk assessment index framework based on the Wuli–Shili–Renli (WSR) methodology. To identify the most significant risk indicators, the risk factors are secondarily filtered by using the Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework (RFRM). Following that, multi-dimensional risk scenarios are created by incorporating the Theory of Scenario Structuring (TSS). Finally, an empirical study is conducted using the Karot Hydroelectric Project project as a case study. The results show that in the two-dimensional risk scenarios, the highest risk value is the coupling of political stability risk and institutional imperfection risk. In the three-dimensional risk scenarios, the highest risk value is the coupling of political stability risk, institutional imperfection risk and communication barrier risk. The risk values of two-dimensional risk scenarios are generally higher than those of one-dimensional risk scenarios and three-dimensional risk scenarios.