Multi-decadal to centennial hydro-climate variability and linkage to solar forcing in the Western Mediterranean during the last 1000 years

Abstract

Here we present a new composite record from two well-dated speleothem records from two caves in Northern Morocco. The high-resolution record covers the last millennium allowing to detect multi-decadal to centennial periodicities. Over the industrial period, δ18O values of our speleothems are shown to be dominated by the main mode of decadal variability in the North Atlantic region: the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Statistical analyses confirm the previously reported multi-decadal variability related to the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) in the region. High power and persistent centennial-scale periodicities, similar to the Vries-Suess 200-year solar cycle, are observed as well. Indeed, comparison between solar activity reconstructions and our record confirms the in-phase relationship on centennial time-scales. Low δ18O values, and hence negative phases of NAO that bring precipitation towards the Western Mediterranean, are observed during well-known solar minima periods. The results are consistent with previous models which describe low irradiance as a trigger for southward shifts of precipitation-bearing westerlies during winter.