Multi-criteria modeling for land suitability evaluation of the urban greenbelts in Iran

Abstract

In this study, a multi-criteria model was considered for land suitability evaluation (LSE) of the urban greenbelt (UGB) in 25 major cities of Iran. On this basis, the greenbelt suitability index (SI) and the environmental change index (ΔY) of the urban sprawl were estimated for the present and future periods. The research modeling was constructed based on some global datasets and factors (i.e., elevation, slope, soil, land use, land cover, agriculture, precipitation, river and road networks, and settlement sprawl) to evaluate greenbelt suitability. Spatial modeling revealed the highest greenbelt suitability (with SI values above 0.8) for the hinterlands of eight cities, including Hamadan, Zanjan, Sanandaj, Rasht, Sari, Gorgan, Qazvin, and Kermanshah. Results also revealed the estimated ΔY values of the urban sprawl between 0.07 and 2.32 for all case studies, relating to a mean sprawl disturbance (ΔX) of 0.27 in the status quo (2018). In the probable future time (2030), the ΔY values were estimated between 0.68 and 5.89 with a mean sprawl disturbance (ΔX) of 0.73 for all case studies, revealing a large increase in the thresholds of the environmental change index. The increase of the ΔY values in the future time indicates the necessity of new suitable UGB plans with new regulation and optimum to curb the urban land use degradation during future developments.