Multi-Criteria Fuzzy Evaluation of the Planned Offshore Wind Farm Investments in Poland

Abstract

In recent years, the dynamic development of renewable energy has been visible all over the world, including Poland. Wind energy is one of the most used renewable energy sources. In Poland, by 2030, it is planned to commission at least six offshore wind farms with a total capacity of 3.8 GW. It is estimated that these investments will increase Poland’s GDP by approximately PLN 60 billion and increase tax revenues by PLN 15 billion. Therefore, they could be a strong stimulus for the development of the Polish economy and may be of great importance in recovering from the crisis caused by the economic constraints related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the article is a multi-criteria evaluation of the investments planned in Poland in offshore wind farms and identification of potentially the most economically effective investments. To account for the uncertainty in this decision problem, a modified fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method was used and a comprehensive sensitivity analysis was performed. As a result of the research, a ranking of the considered projects was constructed and the most preferred investments were identified. Moreover, it has been shown that all the investments considered are justified and recommended.