Multi-criteria decision analysis to evaluate foot and mouth disease control strategies with the perspectives of Chief Veterinary Officers in the Asia-Oceania region.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of foot and mouth disease (FMD) control strategies using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The FMD control strategies were evaluated for epidemiological, economic and social-environmental criteria, accounting for the preferences of Chief Veterinary Officers (CVOs) from the Asia-Oceania region, with the preferences quantified using a questionnaire study. Previously reported simulation results of an FMD epidemic were used to measure the epidemiological effectiveness of FMD control strategies. The simulated FMD epidemic results, such as the number of infected farms, the duration of the epidemic and the outbreak area, were compared for a number of FMD control strategies. Based on previous simulation and economic modelling results and incorporating a literature search to quantify the social and environmental outcomes of an FMD outbreak, MCDA analysis was conducted to evaluate control strategies. According to the overall score in the MCDA results, an FMD control strategy which consisted of a 3-km radius of pre-emptive slaughter, 100 days of movement restriction and vaccinating all FMD-susceptible animals (baseline strategy) was the preferred strategy, with the highest overall score of 62.99. In contrast, the same duration of movement restriction and vaccination strategy with a 0.5-km radius of pre-emptive slaughter was least preferred, with the lowest overall score of 37.05. The evaluation of the FMD control strategies presented here using MCDA has provided scientific evidence for selecting an appropriate baseline FMD control strategy, based on the preferences of CVOs.