Multi-criteria decision analysis for prospective sustainability assessment of alternative technologies and fuels for individual motorized transport

Abstract

Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the transport sector is one of the biggest challenges in the German energy transition. Furthermore, sustainable development does not stop with reducing GHG emissions. Other environmental, social and economic aspects should not be neglected. Thus, here a comprehensive sustainability assessment for passenger vehicles is conducted for 2020 and 2050. The discussed options are an internal combustion engine vehicle (ICEV) fuelled with synthetic biofuel and fossil gasoline, a battery electric vehicle (BEV) with electricity from wind power and electricity mix Germany and a fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) with hydrogen from wind power. The life cycle-based assessment entails 13 environmental indicators, one economic and one social indicator. For integrated consideration of the different indicators, the MCDA method Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is chosen. For the assessment, a consistent assessment framework, i.e. background scenario and system boundaries, and a detailed modelling of vehicle production, fuel supply and vehicle use are the cornerstones. The BEV with wind power is the most sustainable option in 2020 as well as in 2050. While in 2020, the second rank is taken by the ICEV with synthetic biofuel from straw and the last rank by the FCEV, in 2050 the FCEV is the runner-up. With the help of MCDA, transparent and structured guidance for decision makers in terms of sustainability assessment of motorized transport options is provided.Graphical abstract