Multi-criteria analysis to compare multiple risks associated with management alternatives in planted forests

Margot Régolini,Andrea Hevia,Catherine Steffy-Pater,Amélie Castro,Francisco-José Lario,Roque Rodríguez-Soalleiro,Barry Gardiner,Paula Soares,Christophe Orazio,Manuela Branco,Alejandro Cantero,Jean-Yves Fraysse,Céline Meredieu,Ander Arias-González,Hervé Jactel

doi:10.5424/fs/2020292-15660

Abstract

Aim of study: Adaptation of silviculture in planted forest may help to mitigate damage due to biotic and abiotic hazards. However, compromises have to be found because it is not possible to minimize the risk from all hazards through application of a single forest management approach. The objective of this study was to improve a multi-criteria risk analysis (MCRA) method that makes it possible to rank forest management alternatives (FMAs) according to multiple risks. Material and Methods: We defined eight FMAs for maritime pine forests in France, Spain and Portugal. We used as the definition of risk the combination of hazard, susceptibility and exposure. Hazard level was estimated using archive data on occurrence and severity of damaging agents over the last few decades. Forest susceptibility to hazards was evaluated by experts who scored the effect on stand resistance of eleven silvicultural operations characterizing each FMA. Exposure was estimated as value at stake, which combined forest standing volume, simulated with forest growth models, and wood prices. Main Results: Using the PROMETHEE algorithm, we found that the overall ranking of FMAs was consistent across all countries, with short rotation plantations to produce pulpwood or energy wood were the least at risk. The ranking was mainly driven by forest values at stake. We found that by improving the accuracy of forest values exposed to damage, based on growth models and representative wood prices, the MCRA outcomes were more useful and realistic. Research highlights: Our methodology provides a relevant framework to design FMAs that would minimize risks while maintaining income. Keywords: Pinus pinaster; vulnerability; hazards; growth modelling; expert assessment; wood price; southwestern Europe.

Highlights

Planted forests represent 7% of the global forest area and their surface is increasing worldwide (Payn et al., 2015)
The forest management alternatives (FMAs) are explained in the paragraph and described in Table 1 under the following simplified names: M1- High quality, M2- Standard classic, M3- Low investment, M4- Short-term with subsidies, M5- Low density without thinning, M6- Half-dedicated to biomass, M7- Biomass, M8- No management
On average, standing values were generally higher in Aquitaine than in the other two regions due to higher wood prices in this region (Appendix A4 [suppl.])

Summary

Introduction

Planted forests represent 7% of the global forest area and their surface is increasing worldwide (Payn et al., 2015). They are likely to play a significant role in the near future to meet the increasing demand for wood products and decrease the logging pressure on natural forests (ICPF, 2013; Pirard et al, 2016). In many parts of the world, pest and diseases are expanding their range and increasingly causing damage compromising the delivery of forest ecosystem services (Schelhaas et al, 2003; Boyd et al, 2013; Seidl et al, 2014). Climatic changes were identified as key drivers of this increase (Seidl et al., 2011c; Boyd et al, 2013) mainly through change in hazard occurrence, duration, severity and intensity (e.g. extreme climatic events such as drought, Allen et al, 2010)

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion