Multi-centennial climate cycles and their impact on the Tubo Dynasty in the southern Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Multi-centennial–scale climate changes in the Asian monsoonal region significantly affect nearly half of the global population and they have also influenced the evolution of civilizations. However, the relationship between cyclic climate change and civilization remains unclear. Here we present a precisely-dated, high-resolution pollen record from the southern Tibetan Plateau (STP), which reveals ~500-yr and ~ 210-yr cyclic variations in vegetation and precipitation during the last ~3600 years. The results show that ~500-yr and ~ 210-yr rainfall cycles were triggered by changes in the intensity of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) and the Westerlies, respectively. In addition, these two periodicities were almost in-phase with centennial-scale periodic changes in the low-latitude El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), as well as with the high-latitude North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Furthermore, the flourishing/demise of the Tubo Dynasty in China corresponds closely with the superimposed wet/dry phases of the ~500-yr and ~ 210-yr cyclic climate changes, suggesting a direct relationship between regional cultural evolution and multi-centennial–scale climatic cyclicity.