Abstract
The multi-attribute and group-decision problem in the selection of a construction diversion scheme for large hydropower projects often involves multi-decision subjects and schemes. Each scheme includes multiple attributes, and the attribute values and weights are multi-attribute group decision-making problems with interval numbers. In this study, a new method for solving the multi-attribute group-decision problem is proposed by integrating regret theory, negotiation gathering theory, and the Monte Carlo simulation technique. Firstly, decision-makers’ comprehensive perception utility for each scheme is calculated based on the regret theory. Then, non-uniform and fuzzy opinion of different decision subjects are negotiated and gathered, and negotiation intervals of the attribute weights are calculated through group negotiation gathering theory. Moreover, fuzzy complementary judgment matrixes describing an excellent degree of the diversion schemes are obtained by conducting Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, the alternative diversion schemes are sorted in terms of their priorities, and the reliability of the sorting procedure is confirmed. The multi-attribute group-decision problem in the selection of a construction diversion scheme for Jinping I Hydropower Station is effectively solved by the proposed method. The proposed method is reliable and may significantly contribute to engineering decision-making.
Highlights
River diversion during dam construction is a way to provide a safe and free-of-water working area so that the permanent works may be built in the dry
Since the decision-making on a diversion scheme can be considered as a multi-attribute group-decision problem involving multiple decision-makers and attributes, this study proposes that the problem can be effectively solved by using the regret theory
A fuzzy complementary judgment matrix describing the superiority of a diversion scheme over the other scheme is further obtained based on the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the scheme with the greatest probability of superiority is selected
Summary
River diversion during dam construction is a way to provide a safe and free-of-water working area so that the permanent works may be built in the dry. The selection of a diversion scheme is a complicated multi-attribute group decision-making problem that requires both a comprehensive assessment of multiple factors and a consideration of multiple decision-makers. A method for solving the multi-attribute group decision-making problem in the selection of a diversion scheme for hydropower projects is essential to dam construction. These scholars all assumed that the conduct of those decision-makers was rational, and they did not consider the entirety and incompatibility according to their preferences among those interest-related groups. Since the decision-making on a diversion scheme can be considered as a multi-attribute group-decision problem involving multiple decision-makers and attributes, this study proposes that the problem can be effectively solved by using the regret theory. A fuzzy complementary judgment matrix describing the superiority of a diversion scheme over the other scheme is further obtained based on the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the scheme with the greatest probability of superiority is selected
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