Abstract
Decisions made by fishers and fisheries managers are informed by climate and fisheries observations that now often span more than 50 years. Multi-annual climate forecasts could further inform such decisions if they were skillful in predicting future conditions relative to the 50-year scope of past variability. We demonstrate that an existing multi-annual prediction system skillfully forecasts the probability of next year, the next 1-3 years, and the next 1-10 years being warmer or cooler than the 50-year average at the surface in coastal ecosystems. Probabilistic forecasts of upper and lower seas surface temperature (SST) terciles over the next 3 or 10 years from the GFDL CM 2.1 10-member ensemble global prediction system showed significant improvements in skill over the use of a 50-year climatology for most Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) in the North Atlantic, the western Pacific, and Indian oceans. Through a comparison of the forecast skill of initialized and uninitialized hindcasts, we demonstrate that this skill is largely due to the predictable signature of radiative forcing changes over the 50-year timescale rather than prediction of evolving modes of climate variability. North Atlantic LMEs stood out as the only coastal regions where initialization significantly contributed to SST prediction skill at the 1 to 10 year scale.
Highlights
Living marine resources (LMRs) and the marine ecosystems within which they exist are critical to human health and coastal economies, providing services worth US$21 trillion each year (Costanza et al, 1997)
Predictions of upper and lower seas surface temperature (SST) terciles over the 3 or 10 years were significantly better than climatology over most Large Marine Ecosystems (LMEs) in the North Atlantic, the western Pacific, and Indian oceans
This is consistent with studies showing multi-annual retrospective forecast skill over the Indian, western Pacific and North Atlantic oceans
Summary
Living marine resources (LMRs) and the marine ecosystems within which they exist are critical to human health and coastal economies, providing services worth US$21 trillion each year (Costanza et al, 1997). Fisheries managers are interested in assessing if temperature over the years to decade will be high or low relative to the past 30–50 years used to develop their management frameworks Such forecasts can inform managers on the need to develop reference points more reflective of future conditions and climateinformed stock status projections (Tommasi et al, 2017b). Multiannual climate predictions can benefit long-term spatial planning decisions regarding changes to closed areas, the setting of future closures, preparation for emerging fisheries, adjustment of quotas for internationally shared fish stock, and industry capital investment decisions (Tommasi et al, 2017b). While the skill of seasonal SST forecasts has been assessed at an LMRs-relevant spatial scale (i.e. the coastal shelf) (Stock et al, 2015), multi-annual SST predictability in coastal ecosystems has not been quantified, limiting their use in LMRs management decisions
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
