Abstract
The unfolding of Circular Economy principles will have consequences on the generation rate, amount, and composition of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) as well as the preferred methods to treat them. In this work, four plausible scenarios on the future of MSW for the period 2020 – 2035 have been developed for the City of Oslo, Norway. The scenario’s consequences on (1) MSW amounts and properties and (2) the treatment methods, i.e. Waste-to-Energy (WtE), material recycling and biogas production have been evaluated. The main results can be summarized as such: (1) the evolution of both population and consumption (i.e. waste generated per inhabitant) will have a large impact; (2) meeting EU material recovery target (65% for MSW in 2035) means that several waste fractions have to be recycled at high levels, and this will be challenging without significant logistical and/or treatment capacity changes and/or technological breakthroughs, (3) in 2 out of 4 scenarios, the biogas production capacity must be expanded with a new plant to reach the 65% recovery target, (4) a “business as usual” approach is not sufficient to reach the recovery targets, (5) the combustion properties of MSW to WtE will be affected by increasing recycling, probably towards lower energy contents and higher ash contents and (6) “what-if scenario” studies should be carried out at the city/regional level as specific constraints must be included to bring valuable information.
Highlights
The core of the EU approach concerning waste management has been based on the Waste Framework Directive (WFD 2008/98/EC) and the Waste Hierarchy
The essence of the Circular Economy action plan related to Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management can be described with a few key actions and targets:
The key factors considered for conducting the scenario analysis include the increase of material recycling rate to reach Circular Economy recycling targets, population evolution and consumer behaviour and technical/logistical/system considerations such as the implementation of new technologies or plants relevant to Oslo
Summary
The core of the EU approach concerning waste management has been based on the Waste Framework Directive (WFD 2008/98/EC) and the Waste Hierarchy. It is clear that transitioning towards a more Circular Economy will affect most sectors of the economy and society at large, including current Municipal Solid Waste (MSW, a mixture of household waste and similar Commercial & Industrial waste) management systems that are currently based on composting, Anaerobic Digestion (AD) (to produce a biogas and possibly a fertiliser), material recycling (for paper products, metal, glass and plastic) and Waste-to-Energy (heat and/or power production). The essence of the Circular Economy action plan related to MSW management can be described with a few key actions and targets:. Attain 65% material recycling/recovery rate for MSW by 2035 with specific targets in the Packaging Directive [3].
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