Abstract
Lifetime overall survival (OS) extrapolations are required to estimate important differences in costs and benefits between comparators in health economic models. Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis (B-MPES) models for aNSCLC patients receiving second-line nivolumab have previously demonstrated clinically reasonable and stable estimates for long-term OS. Here, we investigate the plausibility of B-MPES predictions for OS in the CheckMate 227 Part 1 trial of nivolumab plus ipilimumab (NIVO+IPI) in aNSCLC patients in the first-line setting and compare with uninformed standard parametric models (SPMs).
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