MSR29 Application of Bayesian Multi-Parameter Evidence Synthesis to Achieve Clinical Plausibility of Lifetime Survival Extrapolations in First-Line Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (aNSCLC)

Abstract

Lifetime overall survival (OS) extrapolations are required to estimate important differences in costs and benefits between comparators in health economic models. Bayesian multi-parameter evidence synthesis (B-MPES) models for aNSCLC patients receiving second-line nivolumab have previously demonstrated clinically reasonable and stable estimates for long-term OS. Here, we investigate the plausibility of B-MPES predictions for OS in the CheckMate 227 Part 1 trial of nivolumab plus ipilimumab (NIVO+IPI) in aNSCLC patients in the first-line setting and compare with uninformed standard parametric models (SPMs).