MRI radiomics analysis for predicting preoperative synchronous distant metastasis in patients with rectal cancer

Abstract

To investigate the value of MRI radiomics based on T2-weighted (T2W) images in predicting preoperative synchronous distant metastasis (SDM) in patients with rectal cancer. This retrospective study enrolled 177 patients with histopathology-confirmed rectal adenocarcinoma (123 patients in the training cohort and 54 in the validation cohort). A total of 385 radiomics features were extracted from pretreatment T2W images. Five steps, including univariate statistical tests and a random forest algorithm, were performed to select the best preforming features for predicting SDM. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted to build the clinical and clinical-radiomics combined models in the training cohort. The predictive performance was validated by receiver operating characteristics curve (ROC) analysis and clinical utility implementing a nomogram and decision curve analysis. Fifty-nine patients (33.3%) were confirmed to have SDM. Six radiomics features and four clinical characteristics were selected for predicting SDM. The clinical-radiomics combined model performed better than the clinical model in both the training and validation datasets. A threshold of 0.44 yielded an area under the ROC (AUC) value of 0.827 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.6963-0.9580), a sensitivity of 72.2%, a specificity of 94.4%, and an accuracy of 87.0% in the validation cohort for the combined model. A clinical-radiomics nomogram and decision curve analysis confirmed the clinical utility of the combined model. Our proposed clinical-radiomics combined model could be utilized as a noninvasive biomarker for identifying patients at high risk of SDM, which could aid in tailoring treatment strategies. • T2WI-based radiomics analysis helps predict synchronous distant metastasis (SDM) of rectal cancer. • The clinical-radiomics combined model could be utilized as a noninvasive biomarker for predicting SDM. • Personalized treatment can be carried out with greater confidence based on the risk stratification for SDM in rectal cancer.