MRI-based radiomics for stratifying recurrence risk of early-onset rectal cancer: a multicenter study

Abstract

Early-onset rectal cancer (EORC) is characterized by a unique disease process with different clinicopathological features compared with late-onset rectal cancer (LORC). Research on the risk of recurrence in EORC patients, however, is limited. We aim to develop a predictive model to accurately predict EORC recurrence risk. Rectal cancer patients who underwent radical surgery and T2-weighted imaging and diffusion-weighted imaging magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were retrospectively enrolled from three medical institutions from November 2012 to November 2018. Differences in clinicopathological characteristics between EORC and LORC were compared. Five prediction models for disease-free survival were constructed based on clinicopathological variables and five radiomic features from pretreatment MRI of the EORC. A fixed cut-off value calculated in the training set was used to stratify EORC patients into high-risk and low-risk groups of post-operative recurrence. Model performance was evaluated by concordance index (C-index) and receiver operating characteristic curve. A total of 264 EORC patients (median age, 43 years, 163 males) and 778 LORC patients (median age, 62 years, 520 males) were enrolled. Pretreatment positive carcinoembryonic antigen [hazard ratio (HR)= 2.84, P= 0.006], pathological positive lymph node status (pN positive) [HR= 2.86, P= 0.011] and MRI-based radiomics score [HR= 2.72, P < 0.001] are independent risk factors for disease-free survival in EORC patients. The EORC-ClinPathRadiom model, constructed by integrating the clinicopathological characteristics and MRI-based radiomics features of EORC, showed C-index of 0.82, 0.82, and 0.81 in the training, internal, and external test sets, respectively. This model effectively stratified EORC patients into high risk and low risk of recurrence (HRs for the training, internal, and external test sets were 8.96, 6.81, and 7.46, respectively). The EORC-ClinPathRadiom model can effectively predict and stratify the risk of post-operative recurrence in EORC patients.