MR. MEDVEDEV GOES TO MUNICH

Abstract

(By Matthew Bodner. The Moscow Times, Feb. 11, 2016, p. 4. Complete text:) At last year's Munich Security Conference, Foreign Minister Sergei took to the stage to defend Russia's actions in Ukraine [see Current Digest, Vol. 67, No. 7, pp. 8 - 11]. Scheduled [to speak] between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the US vice-president, Lavrov faced a tough sell. ... He did his best to toe the government line, declaring Russia's annexation of Crimea in March 2014 [see Current Digest, Vol. 66, No. 12, pp. 3 - 11] more legitimate than the reunification of Germany in 1990. It was all too much for the audience of heads of state, foreign and defense ministers, and experts. He was laughed at. ... Lavrov accuses the EU of ‘supporting a coup d'etat' in Kiev. I hope he feels somewhat ashamed of having to market such rubbish, former Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt, a staunch critic of Russia's actions in Ukraine, wrote at the time. ... was, of course, pandering to a domestic audience. His points were not meant to sway international opinion of Moscow's foreign policy, but to reinforce Russian state media narratives of the crisis in Ukraine, regardless of how it looked abroad. ... This year, it appears is changing tack. While will attend the Munich conference, Russia's official delegation will be led by Prime Minister Dmitry - the message seems to be that is ready to talk about relief. ... Medvedev is a positive sign that means Moscow is taking the event more seriously now, said Yury Barmin, a political analyst. All in all, I think the Russian delegation will try to smooth out the disagreements with the West, and Medvedev's presence might help. ... provides a soft face with which to wrap Russia's intransigence on issues like the Crimea, the conflict in eastern Ukraine, and Moscow's support for Syrian President Bashar Assad. Whether true or not, is viewed in Moscow as the West's Russian sweetheart. ... According to Dr. Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian security affairs, will be looking for clarity on relief, or, at least, some hope of widening divisions over the issue. will relay the usual Russian talking points, but sanctions are the absolute central issue. ... Official Russian foreign policy positions in Ukraine and Syria have not changed since was laughed off stage last year. But Moscow has been forced to show flexibility in finding a solution to its standoff with the West. ... The reason for the softening of Russia's position is simple: The nation is experiencing its worst economic crisis since 1998, and Western are part of the problem. Consumers and companies are in desperate need of relief from the recession. ... Economists from Russian banks said that were lifted tomorrow, Russia's economy would receive considerable stimulus, as companies could begin refinancing their debts in foreign currencies - which would provide the ruble with a measurable boost. However, some economists doubted that the relief would be significant enough to entice the Russian government into capitulating to Western demands in Ukraine. ... There is, however, something to be said for the government's fear of economically motivated public unrest. Negotiating an end to sanctions, even if the relief is more symbolic than substantive, would send a positive message to concerned Russians. ... The Kremlin faces a daunting balancing act: It cannot be seen as abandoning the separatist forces it supported in eastern Ukraine - especially if Kiev pulls back from implementing the political side of the Minsk agreements [see Current Digest, Vol. 66, No. 37 - 38, pp. 3 - 6 and Vol. 67, No. 7, pp. 3 - 7]. Equally, it cannot afford to continue its fight with the West. ... Russia wants a repeat of the 2008 Georgian War scenario - getting back to business as usual with the West without having to cede any ground, said Vladimir Frolov, a Russian expert on international relations. ... As such, will look to explore Russia's maneuvering room. Meanwhile, the Europeans will themselves look to discuss sanctions, according to US Senator John McCain, who is scheduled to participate in the conference. ... Medvedev's peacemaking effort is part of a broader attempt to reopen diplomatic tracks with the US. The extent of this apparent detente was underscored last month by a mysterious and surprising meeting in Kaliningrad between Kremlin adviser Vladislav Surkov and Washington's [Assistant Secretary of State] Victoria Nuland [see Current Digest, Vol. 68, No. 3, pp. 10 - 11]. ... Following the meeting, US Secretary of State John Kerry mentioned for the first time that could be lifted. But agreeing on an acceptable schedule of relief won't be easy, as the crisis in Ukraine is not over. ... The key to relief is implementing the Minsk-2 ceasefire agreement.