Abstract

performed to model the most parsimonious and accurate combination of clinical characteristics predicting the presence of UD at final pathology. RESULTS: Overall, 320 (15.4%) patients met the criteria to be enrolled. Mean number of cores taken was 16 (median 14). However, 89 patients (27.8%) harboured UD at final pathology. When PSA, PSA density or clinical stage were excluded from the criteria, only few more patients could be enrolled [+39 pts (+12.2%), +25 (+7.8%) or +2 (+0.6%), respectively] and virtually the same prevalence of patients harboured UD (26.5% vs. 28.1% vs. 27.6%, respectively; p1⁄40.8). When GS was excluded, 360 more patients could be enrolled [+40 (+12.5%)], although this led to a higher prevalence of UD (119/360, 33.1%; p1⁄40.03). Similarly, when number of positive cores was excluded, 887 patients [+567, +177.2%] patients fulfilled the criteria but up to 35.7% (317/887) harboured UD. In the most parsimonious model (biopsy GS 6 and percentage of positive cores <20%), 430/2077 (+110 pts, +34.4%) patients could be enrolled for AS with virtually the same proportion of UD (117/430, 27.2%) relative to the full 5-variables criteria proposed by Van De Bergh (27.8%; p1⁄40.9). CONCLUSIONS: Percentage of positive cores and GS at diagnosis and are the most informative variables that may help in select candidates for AS protocols. We proposed a user-friendly 2-variables tool to extend AS to one third more of contemporary PCa patients without compromising cancer control.

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