MP32-07 CHANGES IN THE CONDITIONAL NET SURVIVAL AND DYNAMIC PROGNOSTIC FACTORS IN PATIENTS WITH NEWLY DIAGNOSED METASTATIC PROSTATE CANCER

Abstract

You have accessJournal of UrologyProstate Cancer: Epidemiology & Natural History II (MP32)1 Sep 2021MP32-07 CHANGES IN THE CONDITIONAL NET SURVIVAL AND DYNAMIC PROGNOSTIC FACTORS IN PATIENTS WITH NEWLY DIAGNOSED METASTATIC PROSTATE CANCER Shintaro Narita, Kyoko Nomura, Shingo Hatakeyama, Masahiro Takahashi, Toshihiko Sakurai, Sadafumi Kawamura, Senji Hoshi, Masanori Ishida, Toshiaki Kawaguchi, Shigeto Ishidoya, Jiro Shimoda, Hiromi Sato, Koji Mituzuka, Tatsuo Tochigi, Norihiko Tsuchiya, Chikara Ohyama, Yoichi Arai, Kengo Nagashima, and Tomonori Habuchi Shintaro NaritaShintaro Narita More articles by this author , Kyoko NomuraKyoko Nomura More articles by this author , Shingo HatakeyamaShingo Hatakeyama More articles by this author , Masahiro TakahashiMasahiro Takahashi More articles by this author , Toshihiko SakuraiToshihiko Sakurai More articles by this author , Sadafumi KawamuraSadafumi Kawamura More articles by this author , Senji HoshiSenji Hoshi More articles by this author , Masanori IshidaMasanori Ishida More articles by this author , Toshiaki KawaguchiToshiaki Kawaguchi More articles by this author , Shigeto IshidoyaShigeto Ishidoya More articles by this author , Jiro ShimodaJiro Shimoda More articles by this author , Hiromi SatoHiromi Sato More articles by this author , Koji MituzukaKoji Mituzuka More articles by this author , Tatsuo TochigiTatsuo Tochigi More articles by this author , Norihiko TsuchiyaNorihiko Tsuchiya More articles by this author , Chikara OhyamaChikara Ohyama More articles by this author , Yoichi AraiYoichi Arai More articles by this author , Kengo NagashimaKengo Nagashima More articles by this author , and Tomonori HabuchiTomonori Habuchi More articles by this author View All Author Informationhttps://doi.org/10.1097/JU.0000000000002036.07AboutPDF ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsPermissionsReprints ShareFacebookLinked InTwitterEmail Abstract INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE: The treatment strategy for patients with de novo metastatic prostate cancer (mPCa) has changed in recent years. Thus, an accurate assessment of the prognosis is critical. Conditional net survival provides a more appropriate method for estimating survival from cancer. This study aimed to identify predictive factors associated with conditional net survival in patients with de novo mPCa, initially treated with androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). METHODS: The medical records of 605 consecutive patients with de novo mPCa who initially received ADT were retrospectively reviewed. The Pohar–Perme estimator was used to calculate the conditional net cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) for up to five years after the diagnosis. Using multiple imputations, proportional hazard ratios for conditional CSS and OS were calculated using adjusted Cox regression models. RESULTS: During the follow-up, 208 patients died, out of which 169 died of progressive prostate cancer. At baseline, the 5-year CSS and OS rates were 65.5% and 58.2%, respectively. The overall conditional 5-year net OS rate at baseline was 0.582, and the overall conditional 5-year net OS rates for patients who survived for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years were 0.566 (−0.16), 0.615 (+3.3), 0.550 (−0.32), 0.702 (+1.2), and 0.811 (+2.29), respectively. The conditional 5-year net CSS and OS survival gradually increased for all the patients. In patients who were given a 5-year survivorship, the conditional 5-year net CSS and OS rates improved to 0.906 and 0.811, respectively. Only the extent of disease score (EOD)≥2 remained a prognostic factor for CSS and OS up to 5 years. With an increase in the survival time, other variables were no longer independent prognostic factors. CONCLUSIONS: The conditional 5-year net CSS and OS in patients with de novo mPCa gradually increased; thus, the risk of mortality decreased with increased survival. The patient’s risk profile changed over time. EOD remained an independent prognostic factor for CSS and OS after the 5-year follow-up. Conditional net survival can affect clinical decision-making, thus providing intriguing information for cancer survivors. Source of Funding: None © 2021 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Volume 206Issue Supplement 3September 2021Page: e567-e567 Advertisement Copyright & Permissions© 2021 by American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc.MetricsAuthor Information Shintaro Narita More articles by this author Kyoko Nomura More articles by this author Shingo Hatakeyama More articles by this author Masahiro Takahashi More articles by this author Toshihiko Sakurai More articles by this author Sadafumi Kawamura More articles by this author Senji Hoshi More articles by this author Masanori Ishida More articles by this author Toshiaki Kawaguchi More articles by this author Shigeto Ishidoya More articles by this author Jiro Shimoda More articles by this author Hiromi Sato More articles by this author Koji Mituzuka More articles by this author Tatsuo Tochigi More articles by this author Norihiko Tsuchiya More articles by this author Chikara Ohyama More articles by this author Yoichi Arai More articles by this author Kengo Nagashima More articles by this author Tomonori Habuchi More articles by this author Expand All Advertisement Loading ...