Moving toward the EU or the Middle East? An assessment of alternative Turkish foreign policies utilizing the GTAP framework

Abstract

This paper assesses the new orientation in Turkish foreign policy towards the Arab world by analyzing the potential impact of Turkey’s membership in either the European Union (EU) or the Greater Arab Free Trade Area (GAFTA). We utilize the most recent version of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, its global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, and the gravity border effect approach to estimate the ad-valorem tariff equivalents (AVEs) of non-tariff barriers (NTBs). In our overall analysis, we account for 24 various sectors. However, in our evaluation, we focus primarily on the food and agricultural sectors because this sector is characterized by high tariff and non-tariff protection. In the CGE simulation analysis, we consider the removal of tariffs and NTBs simultaneously. After projecting the GTAP framework to 2020, we conclude that Turkey would gain unambiguously from EU membership, whereas Turkey’s gains from GAFTA membership would be more limited. The paper also presents that the welfare gains from the removal of NTBs are of considerable importance and would generally be greater than the gains stemming from the elimination of import tariffs.