Abstract
The Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD) was initiated as a policy framework with the aim of doubling rice production in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period from 2008 to 2018. This paper assesses the contribution of the CARD policy to rice production and forecasts the local rice supply and demand to provide a better understanding of the policies needed to attain rice self-sufficiency by 2030. A combination of the autoregressive integrated moving average method and counterfactual approach was adopted using rice statistical data from 23 countries in SSA. The results showed that the contribution of CARD to paddy rice production in 2018 was 10.2 million tons, equivalent to 74% of the target. This contribution resulted from increases in area and yield of 23% and 19%, respectively. However, the yield growth rate was not sustainable in almost two-thirds of countries. Investments in supply-push factors such as fertilizer and irrigation development, which were the focus in the past, have limited effects on rice production. We conclude that sustainable investments in demand-pull factors such as the private-led modern milling sector and contract farming development should be prioritized to achieve rice self-sufficiency in SSA.
Highlights
Rice is an important staple crop that plays an important economic role and feeds approximately half the world’s population (Fahad et al, 2019)
This paper aims to assess the contribution of the Coalition for African Rice Development (CARD) policy framework to rice production over the period 2008 to 2018 of imple mentation and to forecast local rice supply and demand to provide a better understanding of the policy measures necessary to achieve rice self-sufficiency in the region by 2030
A continuous in crease in rice harvested area was observed in the CARD countries from 1996 to 2018 (Fig. 2)
Summary
Rice is an important staple crop that plays an important economic role and feeds approximately half the world’s population (Fahad et al, 2019). Global rice consumption in 2018 was estimated at more than 488 million tons (MT) (USDA, 2019), with Asia accounting for 90% of the production and consumption. Rice consumption is increasing rapidly in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In 2018, rice con sumption in SSA was estimated to be approximately 33.2 MT of milled rice, which was partially fulfilled by the importation of approximately 15.5 MT, an amount equivalent to 33% of that traded in the world market (USDA, 2019). The estimated import bill of the rice was US$ 6.4 billion in 2018. Demand for rice has increased at a rate of 6% per annum over the last ten years (USDA, 2019), giving it the fastest growth rate in the world. Its contribution to food energy is increasing, while this contribution is decreasing for certain cereals, such as millet and sorghum
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