Moving to healthier landscapes: Forest restoration decreases the abundance of Hantavirus reservoir rodents in tropical forests

Abstract

Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease with high human lethality rates, whose transmission risk is directly related to the abundance of reservoir rodents. In the Brazilian Atlantic forest, the main reservoirs species, Oligoryzomys nigripes and Necromys lasiurus, are thought to increase in abundance with deforestation. Therefore, forest restoration may contribute to decrease HCPS transmission risk, a topic still unexplored, especially in tropical regions. Aiming at filling this research gap, we quantified the potential of forest restoration, as required by the current environmental legislation, to reduce the abundance of Hantavirus reservoir rodents in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Using a dataset on small mammal communities sampled at 104 sites, we modeled how the abundance of these two rodent species change with the percentage of forest cover and forest edge density. From the best model, we extrapolated rodent abundance to the entire Atlantic Forest, considering two scenarios: current and restored forest cover. Comparing the estimated abundance between these two scenarios, we show that forest restoration can reduce the abundance of O. nigripes up to 89.29% in 43.43% of Atlantic forest territory. For N. lasiurus, abundance decreased up to 46% in 44% of the Atlantic forest. To our knowledge, this is the first study linking forest restoration and zoonotic diseases. Our results indicate that forest restoration would decrease the chance of HCPS transmission in ~45% of the Atlantic forest, making the landscape healthier to ~2,8 million people living within this area. This positive effect of restoration on disease regulation should be considered as an additional argument to encourage and promote forest restoration in tropical areas around the world.